Prompt: Which one of the following, if true, most strengthens the climatologist’s argument?
Difficulty: đđđđ
How will the right answer fit in terms of support and conclusion?
Only the right answer will add support for the conclusion.
Highlight the main conclusion in the passage, if there is one:
the mountain snowpack will probably melt more rapidly and earlier in the season, leading to greater spring flooding and less storable water
Climatologist: [BACKGROUND]. [SUPPORT]. Therefore, [CONCLUSION].
That’s one wordy conclusion, but the cause-and-effect thing the author is claiming should be fairly clear. They’re predicting what this whole chain kicked off by “global warming” will lead to. To “strengthen” that, the right answer will definitely map to that same chain of cause-and-effect.
Map the wording of the answers to the wording of the passage:
(A) âŚincrease in the average amount of annual precipitationâŚ
This doesnât say anything about the snowpack melting OR the greater spring flooding, so it really doesnât map to the cause-and-effect we want to support. Also, lawyers will note that the passage talked about the âproportionâ of precipitation thatâs rain vs. snow, but the âaverage amountâ of precipitation never comes up. Those are not the same.
(B) âŚafter relatively mild winters, the melting of snowpacks has led to greater spring floodingâŚ
Iâve had many people tell me they eliminated this one because they thought âother mountainous regionsâ was irrelevant. But what does the passage say kickstarted the cause-and-effect chain? âglobal warmingâ. They expect you to know that means the same effect would be happening in other regions.
Otherwise, this wording maps just beautifully to the background about warmer winter temps, and to both parts of the conclusion. If this is true it definitely supports the cause-and-effect the author claimed in the conclusion. Perfection.
(C) On averageâŚthere is less storable waterâŚ
Again, âon averageâ is a different kind of data from whatâs mentioned in the passage. More critically, this answer jumps to the âless storable waterâ bit but doesnât say itâs because of the snowpack melting, so it doesnât really align to the cause-and-effect in the conclusion. And if that didnât bother you, then the comparison between different areas of the Rocky Mountains should have, since that doesnât map to any comparison made in the passage.
(D) On average, in the regions of the world with the mildestâŚ
âOn averageâ again I donât like. But also be careful with what this says: âmildest wintersâ is changing the subject. The passage only says the temps are âlikely to increaseâ, but doesnât say anything like mild-est. Answers that use superlatives and extremes like that will only map to passages that use the same extreme wording.
(E) The larger a mountain snowpack isâŚ
Please stop reading at âThe largerâŚâ There is no mention of the size of the snowpack, let alone whether itâs getting bigger.
(B) is the correct answer.
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